The draft was once an innovative solution for distributing college talent to pro teams, but that was 75 years ago. The economics of pro football have gradually made it less effective, and as the college game becomes increasingly different from the NFL, players have become even more difficult to scout. The league gives its worst teams first crack at incoming college talent in the name of parity, but instead of giving bad teams a leg up, it often forces them to draft players they don't really need at prices they can't afford. Many top picks hold out of training camp before they sign, only to end up with enormous contracts that have little to do with their true value to a football team.
What's more, NFL teams have a 50% chance of blowing a first-round pick entirely—the sort of costly gaffe that can set a franchise back for years.
What's surprising is that the NFL, a league with a long history of making sweeping rules changes, hasn't much changed its draft format since the draft was first held in 1936.
As it's laid out now, teams start out with one pick in each of the draft's seven rounds. Each player is paid more or less according to his draft slot, his position and a rookie pool that limits the amounts teams can spend on draft picks. Based on the multiyear guaranteed portion of first-round draft picks' contracts from the past three years—including the $41.7 million that last year's top pick, quarterback Matthew Stafford, got from the Detroit Lions—this year's likely first pick, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, can expect to make $47 million guaranteed during his first multiyear contract.
In a draft system, there's no way of knowing what a player is actually worth on the open market. In 1998, the Indianapolis Colts used the first pick to draft Peyton Manning, who has gone on to become an excellent NFL quarterback. A year later, the Cleveland Browns used their top pick on Tim Couch, who was considered light years behind Mr. Manning in talent. But Mr. Couch still got a nearly identical salary of $48 million and a signing bonus of about $12 million. Mr. Couch played only 62 games before retiring (in style).
Isn’t it time we said enough to this?
Under a new proposed plan (that I think would work), all 32 teams would be given seven picks. They would have to abide by a spending cap that would go higher to lower—with the worst team (based on its record the previous season) having the most money to spend. When the bidding opened, the most sought-after players would draw multiple bids. Teams could then raise their bid as high as they'd like for a player they coveted.
Theoretically, a team could get any player it wanted—so long as it was prepared to pinch pennies on everyone else. Meanwhile, a team that didn't want to break the bank on any particular player could pick up lots of useful parts by spreading its money around evenly. Teams could also thrive by focusing on the bidding and looking for bargains.
In any case, there's some evidence the draft could be the next fix for a league that fixes everything. One NFL executive said patience is running thin. "There's a huge trail littered with guys who got the big dollars but were a bust," this person said.
Let's see how this draft fairs with the others since 1936....
Tebow to Denver?
